Bears Bewildered! Your Crypto & Stock Mid-Year Review

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What’s on the Menu 🍴

Light the grill, and let's fire up some financial freedom! 🔥

As the fireworks light up the sky this Independence Day, let's illuminate how markets exploded in the first half of 2023.

• Crypto’s Stellar Sprint Through H1 2023 🏃

• Stocks Defy Predictions, Leaves Bears Baffled 🐻

• A New Megatrend (and it’s not AI) 📈

• A Wild West Crypto Clash 🤠

Today’s newsletter is a 5 minute read.

The Market’s Stellar Sprint Through H1 2023 🏃

Well butter my biscuit, the first half of 2023 has been a rollercoaster ride for investors!

We started the year quaking in our boots over recession fears and skyrocketing interest rates.

Despite these bone-chilling narratives, stocks, crypto, and gold didn't just survive - they thrived, posting some mouth-watering gains.

The heavyweights of tech were the primary engines behind these stellar returns, with the Nasdaq100 up by a stunning 39% in H1.

But who's the undisputed champ of 2023 so far?

None other than our digital darling, Bitcoin!

Let's dive deeper into the crypto maze and see what's been cooking in H1 2023...

Bitcoin: 85% YTD

After the FTX calamity of November 2022, Bitcoin shook off the dust and went on a six-month joyride, boasting an 85% YTD gain!

The price action has been playing ping-pong with the support and resistance zones from the 2017-2018 and 2021 candles, respectively.

The million-dollar question for H2 2023 is: Can Bitcoin bulldoze through the seemingly impenetrable $30k resistance zone?

Ethereum: 60% YTD

If Bitcoin is a rollercoaster, then altcoins like Ethereum are the full-on amusement park.

After a nasty 67% plunge in 2022, ETH has bounced back somewhat, though it's still trailing behind Bitcoin with a 61% YTD return.

A cloud of regulatory pressure and uncertainty from the SEC has taken some wind out of Ethereum's sails.

Gensler, as of now, still treats ETH like a hot potato, refusing to categorically deny its security status.

Other Altcoins: 14% YTD

Limping behind are the majority of altcoins and smaller cap crypto assets, down by a teeth-clenching 80%...

The TradingView’s TOTAL3 chart shows this in vivid color, displaying the total crypto market cap minus Bitcoin and Ethereum.

With a paltry 14% YTD gain, alts like ALGO (-30% YTD), EOS (-15% YTD), and MATIC (-12% YTD) have been a lead weight on valuations.

Bitcoin Dominance: 21% YTD

The theme so far in 2023 has been a “flight to safety” in bitcoin, as people rushed for the exit as the SEC labeled dozens of assets securities.

Bitcoin Dominance shows the percentage that bitcoin makes up of the total crypto market capitalization…

And it’s been climbing all year!

Recently, it broke above 50%, which is a key indicator that we’re not seeing an “altcoin season” anytime soon.

Until the regulatory fog lifts, we reckon traders and investors will be clinging onto Bitcoin like a life preserver.

Stocks Defy Predictions, Leaves Bears Baffled 🐻

It's like the S&P 500 did a caffeine-charged all-nighter, bouncing up over 16% to date, while the Nasdaq 100 is flexing even stronger, with a swole-up jump of a staggering 39%.

And why, you ask, is this little tidbit worth noting?

Because it's like an upturned middle finger to what most Wall Street investors were forecasting for 2023.

In fact, we were practically tripping over the predictions of the most anticipated recession in many years.

When the Federal Reserve decided to jack up interest rates back in 2022, the grapevine was abuzz with whispers of how the stock and housing markets were likely to take a nosedive.

Higher interest rates? Usually a recipe for a slower economy, a pricier capital tab for businesses, slimmer profits, and as a result, tumbling valuations.

Despite a few banks crying uncle, real estate cooling its heels, and geopolitical messes, it seems this stock market is as robust as an ox.

The pandemic has thrown more curveballs than a major league pitcher, creating an economic scene that's about as clear as mud and what some like to call a "bifurcated economy" (think goods vs. services).

This brings me to the idea of "herd mentality", or as I prefer to call it, playing follow-the-leader with your investment strategy.

The last thing you want is to be just another sheep in the investing flock. 🐑

Walking in step with the crowd hasn’t been a winning game plan for over a decade.

The stock market keeps throwing a surprise party for everyone with its consistent muscle flexing, even in the face of adversity.

From the trading psychology standpoint, the stock market seems to enjoy inflicting maximum pain on the herd.

A glance at the data reveals a record-breaking number of shorts (folks betting against the market).

Nearly every news channel had analysts singing from the same hymn sheet, forecasting a recession in 2023.

But it seems their crystal balls were no match for the post-pandemic pandemonium.

The lesson we can take from all this?

If a trade looks as clear as day, perhaps it's time to think about how the market could whip out a magic trick and prove you wrong. 🧙‍♂️

A New Megatrend (and it’s not AI) 📈

Artificial Intelligence isn’t the only megatrend making waves this year…

In the world of medicine, semaglutide drugs are all the rage:

When a chart goes parabolic like this, we take notice!

You might know semaglutide drugs by their common names: Ozempic, Mounjaro, or Wegovy.

These drugs are in MASSIVE demand, as everyone from diabetics to celebrities are using them to lose weight at a rapid pace.

The drugs mimic hormones in the human body that regulate hunger, and they essentially suppress appetite.

Drugmakers Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have seen their stocks soar this year on optimism about future sales of these drugs:

Just this past week, Eli Lilly released data from the Phase 2 trial of its newest semaglutide candidate drug, Retatrutide. And the data was absolutely BONKERS.

For those on higher doses in the study, average weight loss was more than 20% of body weight after 48 weeks! 🤯

With the majority of American adults classified as obese, these drugs may offer the best hope for reducing obesity and the associated healthcare costs.

It’s no wonder some analysts believe these drugs will be the best selling drugs OF ALL TIME.

Megatrends can create tons of secondary opportunities too…

We’re thinking through what it could mean if the American population transitions from overeaters to slender beauties.

Will restaurants feel the effects? What about candy, chip, & junk food producers?

Will fitness apps & apparel companies experience a megaboom?

We’d love to know what your thoughts and ideas are on this topic because we still believe this trend is only just beginning!

A Wild West Crypto Clash 🤠

It's high noon in Crypto’s Wild West, and the gunslingers dueling it out are none other than Coinbase and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Rewind to April 2021, a simpler time when NFTs of rocks were selling for millions and Coinbase was making history by listing on the Nasdaq.

But this was also the start of the love-hate-more-like-hate relationship between Coinbase and the SEC, with the latter raising red flags at every turn.

There have been multiple instances of the SEC alleging securities violations by Coinbase, from their lending product in 2021 to the recent accusations in 2023 about listing 'unregistered securities.'

So, what happens when the sheriff and the new kid in town don't see eye to eye?

Well, they duke it out in court.

On June 28, Coinbase tossed the gauntlet at the SEC, sending a letter that essentially says, "Come at me, bro!"

They challenged the SEC's view that the tokens and staking services they offer are securities.

They also threw in a zinger about senior SEC officials admitting Bitcoin and ETH aren't securities, a cheeky jab at the watchdog's inconsistency.

With this bold move, Coinbase isn't just defending their operations - they're challenging the grey area around crypto regulation itself.

The lack of clarity is like trying to navigate a maze blindfolded, and Coinbase is demanding a map.

Now the SEC's got till July 13 to figure out their next move, thanks to Coinbase's strategic deadline push.

It's like a chess match on steroids, where the endgame could change the rules of the game.

And we've got front row seats to the spectacle.

So pop some popcorn and sit tight - this wild ride is just getting started.

Delicious Bites 😋

• These are the new cars with the biggest discounts right now

• The SEC and Gary Gensler have a serious credibility issue

• Permabears Get Clicks But Realists Make Money - The latest Stocks & Coffee Podcast

• SBF bought $18M worth of Bahamian property with customer funds

• Our favorite cowboy shares a life lesson about expectations

Food For Thought 🧠

"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."

- Benjamin Franklin

DISCLAIMER: We are not investment advisors, and this content is for educational purposes only. We don’t offer financial, legal, or tax advice. Nothing we say is a recommendation to buy or sell any assets. Trading and investing are extremely risky, so please be careful and do your own research.