Bitcoin's on the Brink of Breaking Out

What’s On The Menu 🍴

• Bitcoin’s Baking at $30k Resistance 🌡️

• An Airbnb Collapse? Sounds Like Fake News 🤫

• Student Loan Repayment Woes 👩‍🎓

• The Rise of Alcohol-Free Booze 🍻

Today is a 4 minute read.

Bitcoin’s Baking at $30k Resistance 🌡️

Do you feel that?

It's the heat of Bitcoin testing the $30k resistance zone. ♨️

Yeah, it's been poking at this hot zone for over two months...

More like Bit-tease, right?

But hey, we're cookin' up something even bigger!

The Bitcoin halving event is coming up in less than a year.

Imagine that... the rewards for mining Bitcoin cut in half again.

Since the start of 2023, we've been kneading a bull market for 6 months now.

The dough is rising...

And while tech stocks have had their own bounce (sort of like a baking soda effect), Bitcoin has outperformed them all.

With gains of over 80% YTD, Bitcoin is sizzling!

$30k-$35k resistance is the magic temperature on the yearly chart. Snap above that, and we're in for some serious gourmet gains...

But let's not forget about the stocks…

Because a quick selloff could put our meal plans on ice. So we'll have to watch Bitcoin closely to see if it still rises, or if it goes flat with stocks.

Remember, sometimes Bitcoin and stocks move together like two peas in a pod...

And sometimes, they split up like a short high school romance and head in different directions.

But when Bitcoin is able to trade upwards, regardless of the stock situation?

Now that's a flavor to savor.

We’ll be keeping a close eye as Bitcoin continues to rise.

An Airbnb Collapse? Sounds Like Fake News 🤫

Real estate doomer Nick Gerli posted a tweet that went viral this week suggesting that Airbnb hosts’ revenue across America is collapsing by 30-50%:

BUT if we put our critical thinking caps on, his data immediately looks “sus” (Gen-Z speak for suspect) considering:

🚩 Airbnb is publicly traded, and the stock is up 46% year-to-date

🚩 In Q1 Airbnb reported revenue growth of 20% and stable Average Daily Rates (”ADRs”)

🚩 US traveler volume reported by the TSA is still running well above last year’s levels

🚩 US real estate remains surprisingly firm, and homebuilder stocks hit new highs in June

We know that higher interest rates have put pressure on the values of some vacation homes as well as the financial well being of some Airbnb hosts, but overall we think Gerli’s data is wrong.

The CEO of AirDNA, a firm that tracks Airbnb & VRBO listings, agrees with us.

He responded to Gerli’s tweet with his own data suggesting that rates are up in some US cities and only down minimally in others:

Fear plays well on social media, and Gerli got 50K+ likes on his post.

But ABNB shareholders are the real winners so far this year.

It’s another reminder that permabears often sound smart when they cherrypick data points, but reality usually wins out against false narratives in financial markets!

Is Repayment Of Student Loan Debt A Nothing-Burger? 👩‍🎓

For 3 years, holders of Federally backed student loans have been able to simply not pay, and stay in forbearance.

But now it’s time to start coughing up the dough in October.

According to data from studentaid.gov, out of the over 46 million total borrowers, a whopping 58% of them are in forbearance.

What have they been doing with this “extra money” that would normally go to their loans for 3 years?

Probably traveling, shopping and mayyyybe saving some of it.

With that said, there have been concerns on how repayment will affect the economy, discretionary spending, and more.

Many have said that student loan repayments will be what pushes us officially into a recession.

Borrowers are simply too used to having the extra cash now.

This begs the question… how big of a deal is this?

It’s impossible to know for sure, but, what we do know, is that most of the student loan debt is held by the age group with the LOWEST unemployment rate.

I think that is worth noting.

As you can see, the age group who holds the MOST student loan debt is 24-49.

And guess what the unemployment rate is for those ages 25 and up?

A whopping 3.0%!

The older in age you go, the unemployment rate gets even lower.

So, while there will likely be a hit to some consumer spending as borrowers re-adjust to paying this bill, I also think the low unemployment rate of the age group that matters is an important factor.

This could help cushion the blow.

The Rise of Alcohol-Free Booze 🍻

Sobriety is the new buzz!

The non-alcoholic beverage market is booming, and it's not just about soda and seltzer anymore.

Non-alcoholic alternatives to traditional alcoholic beverages have been gaining popularity over the years.

In fact, the term “Functional Alcohol” has been exploding…

Along with many startups looking to cash in on the craze.

For example, BuzzCutt is an app that curates local venues offering non-alcoholic options.

A shift towards mindful consumption, coupled with the advent of the pandemic, has led to an exponential increase in the demand for these products.

Sip on these sobering facts:

1. The trend of non-alcoholic consumption started to take off a couple of years before the pandemic, with no-alcohol bars catering to the “sober curious” in various cities

2. Major alcohol companies including Heineken, AB InBev, and Molson Coors have started offering more zero-alcohol options. Rising stars like Athletic Brewing and Seedlip have also entered the market

3. Traditional non-alcoholic beers often still contain a small level of ethanol, usually less than .5% ABV. But beers like Heineken 0.0 have paved the way for truly alcohol-free options, enhancing the accessibility of NA beers

4. Demand for non-alcoholic alternatives is primarily driven by younger consumers who want to moderate their drinking habits. (Great job, zoomers!)

5. Non-alcoholic drinks aren't necessarily cheap; many cost the same, if not more, than their alcoholic counterparts

Non-alcoholic beverages, once the wallflowers at the party, are now leading the dance.

But will the market stay drunk in love or will the buzz eventually wear off?

The trends seem to be signaling that this sober party is just heating up!

Delicious Bites 😋

• Is the recession canceled or just delayed? Check out this week’s We Talk Money podcast

• 2023 is half way completed - And the stock market is on pace for record gains this year

• Why Dave Ramsey is DEAD WRONG about the real estate market

Food For Thought 🧠

“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow.
If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.”
- Paul Samuelson

DISCLAIMER: We are not investment advisors, and this content is for educational purposes only. We don’t offer financial, legal, or tax advice. Nothing we say is a recommendation to buy or sell any assets. Trading and investing are extremely risky, so please be careful and do your own research.