🖥️ Why Cyber Monday Reigns Supreme Online

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What’s on the Menu 🍴

Shopping - the activity that drives up the price of our stocks…

And drains our bank accounts.

But the good news is this week’s calendar is packed important earnings, and charts on the brink of big moves.

Let’s roll:

• What To Watch This Week 👀

• Why Cyber Monday Reigns Supreme Online 🖥️

• A Bull Market In Bear’s Clothing? 👕

Today’s newsletter is a 4 minute read.

What To Watch This Week 👀

Last week we got a holiday snooze-fest in financial markets, with relatively low trading volume across most asset classes.

Even Nvidia’s post-earnings move was relatively quiet, as the stock moved roughly 4% versus the 7% move implied by option prices prior to the report.

Crypto was the exception with Bitcoin up 4%+ and Ethereum up 6%+ last week, although Bitcoin’s attempt to push past the $38K level stalled out:

This week should deliver more action as we move into the final month of the year.

The release of retail sales reports for the Black Friday / Cyber Monday shopping bonanza will give the market a good read on the consumer early this week.

We’ll also get a handful of earnings reports from the software & retail sectors, including releases from Salesforce, Snowflake, Crowdstrike, Intuit, Foot Locker, Ulta, and Dollar Tree.

On Thursday, OPEC+ will meet to discuss crude oil output targets, so keep an eye on energy.

On the macro data calendar we’ll also have data releases for the following:

• EU inflation

• US Personal Income & Spending

• China manufacturing

• US manufacturing

• Canadian unemployment

Here are some asset classes & sectors we’ll be watching closely this week:

• Retail (XRT)

• Crypto (BTC & ETH)

• Semiconductors (SOXX & NVDA)

• Software (IGV)

• Big Tech (QQQ)

• Regional Banks (KRE)

Why Cyber Monday Reigns Supreme Online 🖥️

November 28, 2005, marked the debut of what we now know as Cyber Monday.

Think of it as the cooler, younger sibling of Black Friday, but all online.

This brainchild of Ellen Davis, the NRF's savvy Senior VP, started as a clever nudge to get folks clicking 'add to cart' from the comfort of their office desks.

Back then, our home internet was as sluggish as a Monday morning.

So, savvy shoppers, still buzzing from Black Friday, turned to their office computers for speedier deal hunting.

And boy, did they shop - racking up a cool $484 million in sales on day one.

Fast forward, and Cyber Monday's not just an American spree-fest anymore. It's a global click-a-thon, drawing in countries far and wide.

The recipe?

A mix of faster home internet, smartphones in every hand, and tablets for on-the-go browsing.

Plus, let's not forget those juicy online-only deals that make wallets quiver.

By 2010, Cyber Monday smashed records, crossing the billion-dollar mark in the U.S. alone.

This isn't just about jaw-dropping sales figures, though:

• It's a mirror to our changing habits and tech leaps.

• It nudged retailers to buff up their online storefronts, focusing on smoother customer experiences and iron-clad security.

• Now, we're seeing Cyber Monday and Black Friday kind of melding into one mega shopping extravaganza.

But let's be real – Cyber Monday holds its own, flaunting the muscle of e-commerce.

As we keep evolving with tech, you bet Cyber Monday will keep shaping the way we swipe, click, and shop.

And yes, for Cyber Monday, you can still get 50% off your first monthly or quarterly subscription to the Wealth Building Community.

(Use our ironic promo code “BLACKFRIDAY” to save this Cyber Monday)

A Bull Market In Bear’s Clothing? 👕

There has been shock all around at the resilience of the stock market.

We’ve been hearing for a year how a recession is coming, along with fresh S&P 500 multi-year lows… but, it’s just not happening.

Bears are hoping that this is just a bear market rally (aka: higher prices that will soon fade back to more selling and a continuation of a bear market).

The problem: this price action is not quite acting like a bear market rally. It’s acting like a full blown bull market.

When you study the 2000 tech bubble, 2008 financial crisis and 2020 pandemic, it’s clearer to see why this is a new bull market. Price getting above the 200 day moving average with convicting price action is typically the tell that the bear market is over.

Not 100% of the time though. In bear markets, price will pop above the 200 day moving average from time to time, but, it’s typically short lived and weak. You are more likely to see consolidation and then failure back below the 200 day moving average in a bear market.

The S&P 500 price rally has been neither short lived, or weak.

Currently, the price action in the S&P 500 didn’t walk back above the 200 day, it SPRINTED above it and it’s been holding with strength.

When you look back at the 2000 tech bubble and 2008 financial crisis, it was clear just how weak price was.

We were consistently BELOW moving averages. Rallies were holding below moving averages as well.

It wasn’t until we had a break above the 200 day with a strong run higher in price that ended the bear market.

So everyone is calling this a bear market rally, but, history tells us that the bear market has ended.

Food For Thought 🧠

"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters.”
- Epictetus

DISCLAIMER: We are not investment advisors, and this content is for educational purposes only. We don’t offer financial, legal, or tax advice. Nothing we say is a recommendation to buy or sell any assets. Trading and investing are extremely risky, so please be careful and do your own research.