👀 All Eyes on All-Time Highs

What’s on the Menu 🍴

With stocks near all-time highs and bitcoin bouncing, investors are wondering…

Are we in new bull market territory or a bubble?

Let’s dive into the data:

• Can You Trust Altcoin Spikes? 📈

• What To Watch This Week 👀

• All Eyes on All-Time Highs 👀

Today’s newsletter is a 4 minute read.

Can You Trust Altcoin Spikes? 📈

Altcoins can be a wild ride, especially during market surges like the recent one triggered by the Fed’s interest rate cut.

Last week, both bitcoin and altcoins were up about 7%…

And it might seem like altcoins are the ticket to faster gains. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves—history isn’t kind to most of these coins.

Altcoins are like the pop stars of the crypto world—here today, gone tomorrow.

While Bitcoin is the steady, classic rock band filling stadiums, most altcoins burn out after their brief moment in the spotlight.

Sure, there are a few survivors, like Ethereum, but the vast majority fizzle out. Their price might spike during market optimism, but when the dust settles, many altcoins end up forgotten, left behind as investors return to the security of Bitcoin.

Why does this happen?

Altcoins are way more volatile than Bitcoin because they tend to have less liquidity. When money floods the market—like after a rate cut—altcoins jump higher simply because they’re smaller, like a lightweight fighter landing quick punches.

But volatility is a double-edged sword. The same market forces that pump their value can just as easily drag them down when liquidity dries up, leaving investors with a portfolio full of worthless coins.

The takeaway?

Don’t let short-term excitement turn you into a long-term bag holder. Altcoins might promise outsized gains, but they come with even bigger risks.

What To Watch This Week 👀

The US Federal Reserve cut the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points last week, kicking off a modest rally across stocks and crypto.

Will we see an extension of the rally this week? That’s the million dollar question!

The fear & greed index isn’t at extreme levels yet…

US elections, worries about the economy, and Q3 earnings season could still spoil the party as we move later into the year.

Most of the economic news was positive last week however.

Initial jobless claims in the US ticked down, housing starts jumped, and inflation readings were mostly lower (with the exception of Japan).

Costco, Micron, and Accenture report earnings this week but otherwise it’s a light week for earnings reports.

On the macro data front we’ll have the following:

• S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMIs (Mon)

• Germany manufacturing PMI (Mon)

• Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision (Mon)

• Australia inflation (Tues)

• US new home sales (Wed)

• Fed Chair Powell speech (Thurs)

• US durable goods orders (Thurs)

• US personal income & spending (Fri)

• Germany unemployment (Fri)

Most sectors of the market rallied last week, including laggards such as small caps and energy.

Trading was choppy however, so we’ll be looking for follow through strength this week.

We’ll be keeping a close eye on the following assets & sectors:

📈 Rising Recently:

• Small Caps (IWM)

• Crypto (BTC / ETH / WGMI)

• Energy (XLE / XOP)

• Financials (KRE / KBE)

• Utilities (XLU)

• Internet & Software (IGV)

📉 Falling Recently:

• Cleantech (TAN / PBW)

• REITs (XLRE)

All Eyes on All-Time Highs 👀

The S&P 500 is setting the stage for a major breakout.

The chart above shows SPY hovering just below its all-time highs, teasing investors with the potential for a move into uncharted territory.

With last week's 50-basis point rate cut from the Fed providing a tailwind, this could be the moment bulls have been waiting for.

Key Technicals:

SPY recently rallied past the key resistance zone around $565–570 (highlighted in yellow on the chart), pushing just above it before pulling back slightly.

While there’s some consolidation happening now, the ETF remains above its 200-day moving average (blue line) and its 50-day moving average (orange line), signaling that the long-term and mid-term trends are still bullish.

Volume is also starting to rise, hinting at growing interest as SPY approaches this critical level. Historically, these types of setups, where price nears resistance with increasing volume, often precede significant breakouts.

The Macro Picture:

This technical optimism comes hot on the heels of a significant macroeconomic shift. The Fed’s decision to cut rates by 50 basis points last week sent a clear message: they’re ready to support the market.

Lower rates reduce the cost of borrowing, making stocks more attractive relative to bonds and other fixed-income investments. Additionally, the market is already pricing in the possibility of more rate cuts, which could provide further fuel to the fire for equities.

What's Next for SPY?

The key level to watch remains $570.

If SPY can decisively break and hold above this resistance with strong volume, it could open the door to a new all-time high. There’s some caution, though—volatility could spike as investors react to incoming economic data and the Fed’s future rate moves. But for now, the stars seem aligned for a potential breakout.

Whether you're trading this rally or just watching from the sidelines, the SPY chart is the one to keep an eye on.

Food For Thought 🧠

"The trick is not to learn to trust your gut feelings,
but rather to discipline yourself to ignore them.”
- Peter Bernstein

DISCLAIMER: We are not investment advisors, and this content is for educational purposes only. We don’t offer financial, legal, or tax advice. Nothing we say is a recommendation to buy or sell any assets. Trading and investing are extremely risky, so please be careful and do your own research.