🌲 Some Things Never Change

What’s on the Menu 🍴

Today we're revisiting some timeless truths of the financial world.

We’re also unpacking the potential of Bitcoin beyond just holding…

And taking a fresh look at the U.S. housing market from an under-appreciated angle.

Let’s roll:

• Some Things Never Change 🌲

• Is Your Bitcoin Working for You? ₿

• U.S. Real Estate's Surprising Affordability 🏡

• Stocks Hit New All-Time Highs and Bitcoin Rebounds! 📺

Today’s newsletter is a 5 minute read.

Some Things Never Change 🌲

We love hunting for new trends and investment ideas, but there are some things that just NEVER change in the world of investing.

One thing we can always count on is the tendency of financial markets to swing from panic to euphoria (and back again).

The classic fear & greed cycle driven by human emotion has been the one constant throughout our investing careers.

It has also given us some of the most profitable trading opportunities over the years.

Take this year (2023) for example:

• On August 2nd we wrote “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy” warning that investor sentiment was getting overheated. Sure enough a major market correction followed

• Then on October 20th, we wrote “Could This Signal A Buying Opportunity?” right as many stocks were making new lows for the year.

We’ve seen a huge rally in stocks & bonds this week after the Fed signaled it could be open to interest rate cuts early next year.

We called for this potential outcome back on October 13th:

At this point however, investor sentiment has shifted back into greed mode:

It would be easy to get caught up in FOMO in this environment.

But it’s important to stay calm & rational. We don’t want our emotions to swing as dramatically as the market.

We want to use the fear & greed cycle to our advantage. We want to fade extremes!

That doesn’t necessarily mean we’re calling a top on the current rally, but it does have us asking ourselves these questions:

• Have any positions in the portfolio rallied way beyond our price targets?

• Would it make sense to trim any positions that have gotten overheated?

• Does our current portfolio positioning still make sense?

• Are there any cheap risk hedges worth legging into?

• What could shift in the near future that we should be positioning for now?

Everyone has to make their own portfolio judgments, but this can be a good starting point for evaluating the situation rationally.

The market loves to push assets beyond where we think they should trade in a bull market and below where we think they should trade in a bearish environment.

Rather than getting upset or complaining about irrational prices, let’s keep using these rollercoasters as a source of wealth creation opportunity!

Is Your Bitcoin Working for You? ₿

Hot Take: Bitcoin Isn’t Just for the Graveyard

You've probably heard the crypto chant: "Never sell, HODL forever!"

But here's a spicy take – what if Bitcoin was more than just a way to stockpile digital gold?

Think of Bitcoin as more than just a treasure to bury…

And as a secret weapon to jazz up your life.

Letting go of the “never sell” mantra could open doors to some pretty sweet life upgrades:

• Dream Home, No Mortgage Headache: Imagine walking into your dream pad, keys in hand, debt-free.

• Wave Goodbye to Debt: Got a mountain of bills that's cramping your style? Bitcoin could be your magic broom, sweeping those debts clean off your plate.

• New Zip Code, Who Dis?: Ever dreamt of living somewhere that's more "you"? A well-timed Bitcoin sale could pack your bags for you.

• Retirement Goals, Secured: Fancy sipping cocktails on a beach at 60? Cash in some crypto and pump up that retirement fund for some tax-advantaged gains.

I can hear the cries now - “But why would I ever sell the world’s best performing asset?”

Here’s a few reasons to sell some of your stack, even if you think bitcoin will continue to increase in value:

• Peace of Mind Over Potential Gains: Sure, Bitcoin might outpace your mortgage interest in the long run, but can you put a price on the peace of mind that comes from being debt-free?

• Diversification for Financial Stability: Keeping all your eggs in the Bitcoin basket? Risky business. Selling a portion of your Bitcoin holdings to invest in diverse assets or funding retirement accounts reduces your dependency on the whims of one market.

• Enjoying Life Now, Not Just in the Future: Selling some crypto to fund immediate life goals adds richness to your life that waiting on potential future gains just can’t match.

• Reducing Stress During Market Downturns: The crypto market is a rollercoaster. Selling a portion when the market is up can spare you sleepless nights during inevitable downturns.

Rethinking the “HODL” Hype

Let's be real – clinging onto ALL your Bitcoin forever might mean missing out on actually living your life.

When the market’s on a bull run, and you're sitting on a crypto goldmine, why not cash in some chips for a life level-up?

After spending the past decade full-time in bitcoin, we think it’s all about having multiple capital buckets that serve different goals, like:

• HODL cold storage: bitcoin stacked away forever.

• Market cycle trades: buy during bear markets, sell during euphoria, use the capital to improve your life.

• Swing trades: take advantage of bitcoin’s volatility by increasing your returns from buying breakouts, dips, and selling into FOMO.

At the end of the day, everyone has different financial goals…

And we think it makes sense to use bitcoin as a life-improving tool, and not to just end up the richest dead guy.

U.S. Real Estate's Surprising Affordability 🏡

Think U.S. homes are just wallet-drainers?

When you really crunch the numbers, the good ol’ USA is playing a different game than you might think – one where the American Dream doesn't cost an arm and a leg, especially when you glance up north to our pals in Canada.

Here's the scoop: American home prices have indeed been climbing up the graph, but guess what?

So have American paychecks.

Since the big '80s hairdos were in style, home prices and disposable incomes in the States have been doing a neat little tango together.

So while buying a pad in the U.S. might pinch, it's not out of reach.

Now, let’s talk about our Canadian friends, eh?

Their home prices have been on a wild rocket ride to the moon, leaving incomes eating cosmic dust.

What's this mean for you, me, and the world at large?

Simple - The U.S. real estate market might just be the biggest open secret in town, a hidden gem that's got value written all over it.

After all, land is a scarce asset…

And beautiful places to call home will always be in demand.

So, could Uncle Sam's backyard be gearing up for a price tag glow-up to match the rest of the world’s steep real estate costs?

Maybe.

And falling mortgage interest rates have got investors with their ears to the ground, ready for the rumble of a market shake-up.

Stocks Hit New All-Time Highs
and Bitcoin Rebounds! 📺 

During this week’s We Talk Money, stocks made a new all-time high…

And bitcoin is bouncing after a “scary” liquidation event on Monday.

Click here to watch - We Talk Money Episode 131

Today’s show is PACKED with value…

You’ll also learn:

• Why are rates cratering and prices rising?

• What are we looking for in Q1 of 2024?

• How can you find value in today’s market?

• And much more!

Food For Thought 🧠

"Bitcoin, it’s like a bank in cyberspace, run by incorruptible software, offering a global, affordable, simple, & secure savings account to billions of people that don’t have the option or desire to run their own hedge fund.”
- Michael Saylor

DISCLAIMER: We are not investment advisors, and this content is for educational purposes only. We don’t offer financial, legal, or tax advice. Nothing we say is a recommendation to buy or sell any assets. Trading and investing are extremely risky, so please be careful and do your own research.